The global macroeconomic landscape in 2025 is set to become more fluid as markets face increasing complexity. The business cycle's evolution will likely be driven by the interaction between macro dynamics and monetary policy, with added uncertainty from potential policy changes by the new U.S. administration.

Technological innovation and the broadening of the AI cycle are expected to remain significant drivers across markets, with monetization becoming a greater focus in the coming quarter.

“As we transition into 2025, although business cycle dynamics remain crucial to the outlook, there will be heightened focus on policy changes in the U.S. across trade, immigration, regulatory, and fiscal policies. These changes should significantly influence outcomes in the U.S. and beyond,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE.

Overall, MWISE’s baseline scenario for 2025 sees global growth remaining strong. U.S. exceptionalism is expected to bolster the U.S. dollar and buoy U.S. risky assets, though the outlook appears more mixed for Treasuries. MWISE Research is broadly constructive on credit, anticipating modest changes in high-grade spreads but remains cautious on EM fixed income. Additionally, the outlook for U.S. equities and gold is bullish, but bearish on oil and base metals.

“The backdrop of policy uncertainty combined with geopolitical risks, however, suggests increasing macroeconomic volatility and a wider range of potential outcomes,” Hari noted.

Equity Markets

In 2025, global equity markets could face an environment characterized by several cross-currents.

“The central equity theme for next year is one of higher dispersion across stocks, styles, sectors, countries, and themes. This should improve the opportunity set and provide a healthier backdrop for the active management industry after consecutive quarters of record narrow and unhealthy equity leadership,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE.

Diverging central bank paths, uneven disinflation progress, and technological innovation will likely continue to drive divergence across global business cycles. Moreover, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and evolving government policy agendas could introduce unusual complexity to the stock market outlook.

The current polarized regional equity performance will likely persist into 2025, with U.S. equities preferred over eurozone and EM. MWISE Research estimates a price target of 6,500 for the S&P 500 next year, with EPS of $270.

“The U.S. could remain the global growth engine with the business cycle in expansion, a healthy labor market, broadening AI-related capital spending, and the prospect of robust capital markets and dealmaking activity,” Hari noted. “On the other hand, Europe continues to face structural challenges, while EM struggles with higher-for-longer rates, the strong U.S. dollar, and incremental trade policy headwinds.”

Japanese equities could benefit from domestic reflation with improving real wage growth, accelerating buybacks, and continued corporate reforms. They could also receive a boost from strong demand and favourable currency rates on the international stage.

“Overall, as 2025 progresses, there exists the potential for a convergence trade, given extreme relative positioning, valuations, and price divergences across regions. However, more clarity is first needed on global trade policies and the U.S. inflation dynamic – that the latter keeps moving in the right direction,” Hari said.

“We think the key risk for our base case and especially the riskier segments of the market is one where the disinflation progress fully stalls and starts to reverse, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider potential hikes later in 2025 or early 2026. If this scenario were to start playing out, we will likely have to revisit our outlook,” Hari added.

Key equity index price targets for 2025 include:

• S&P 500: 6,500

• MSCI Eurozone: €300

• FTSE 100: £8,600

• MSCI EM: $1,150

The Global Economy

In 2024, the global expansion proved resilient despite elevated inflation limiting central banks’ scope for rate cuts. MWISE Research’s 2025 baseline forecast incorporates an extension of this high-for-long rate environment. Global GDP is anticipated to rise by 2.5%, and core CPI inflation could remain sticky, close to its current 3%. While consistent with limited easing overall, the global impulses that have promoted synchronization are expected to fade, with divergence among central banks being a key theme.

This view contrasts with consensus projections by central banks and private forecasters, which see core CPI inflation approaching 2% and substantial easing.

“Our top-down global outlook is built on an alternative narrative in which the interaction of the pandemic shock and aggressive policy responses generates reverberations that sustain elevated inflation and policy rates,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE. “This high-for-long baseline challenges consensus thinking in two important ways. First, we see goods price disinflation as having ended and do not envision a macroeconomic backdrop that supports a return of service price inflation to pre-pandemic norms. Second, we see the powerful global impulses that had promoted synchronization fading.”

Regional divergences in inflation and policy rates could become prominent as a result. Western Europe could remain a weak link, with euro area policy rates forecasted to fall below 2%. In contrast, limited action is expected by the Fed and most EM central banks, which could support a “high-for-real-long” rate narrative.

Uncertainties related to U.S. policy and geopolitics loom large. If the new administration implements targeted tariffs and modest fiscal easing, the overall impact could reinforce U.S. growth outperformance and sticky global inflation. However, the tail risks associated with more extreme trade and immigration policies cannot be ignored.

“Our baseline view anticipates a version of the Trump presidency that is tamer than what he campaigned on. A key risk to the outlook is if policy shifts are more extreme,” Hari noted. “If the U.S. turns aggressively inward by sharply curtailing trade and attempting large-scale deportations, the fallout would be a far more adverse global supply shock. The disruptive impact would be amplified by retaliation and a global sentiment slide, which would be a major threat to the global expansion next year.”

Global Outlook Scenarios

In 2025, MWISE Research sees a 55% probability of a high-for-long baseline and a 45% probability of rates dropping.

Rates

At a global level, the base case macro view assumes growth resilience and sticky inflation, which limits the magnitude of further policy rate easing in 2025. As a result, DM policy rates will likely remain higher for longer, albeit with continued divergence between U.S. and euro area rates.

However, the new Trump administration could result in tail risks, including a downside scenario where overly aggressive trade and migration policies result in an adverse supply-side shock and negative hit to global sentiment. Overall, MWISE Research expects DM yields to grind lower over the course of 2025.

In the U.S., there could be more room for the front end of the curve to outperform as the Fed eases through the third quarter of 2025.

“Fed expectations are currently pricing in a shallow easing cycle but policy uncertainty is likely to continue in the first half of 2025,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE. “As such, we forecast 10-year yields to fall to a low of 4.10% in the third quarter and to rebound to 4.25% by year-end.”

The outlook appears dimmer in Europe, where the economy could grow at a sluggish sub-potential pace due to heightened trade uncertainty.

“The euro area is likely to be the weakest link in the global outlook, and we have a bias for long duration in intermediate EUR versus USD yields,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE.

In Japan, rates are expected to continue rising in 2025, driven by the Bank of Japan’s more hawkish stance compared to current market pricing and its decreasing ownership of the coupon JGB market.

“We expect modest bear flattening in the cash space, but we have a stronger conviction in the flattening of the front end of the curve,” added Hari, Partner at MWISE.

FX

In 2025, the policy fallout from the U.S. election will likely inform the direction of FX markets. Beyond this, classical FX drivers such as cyclical/policy differentiation and valuations are expected to play a key role as well.

MWISE Research is bullish on the U.S. dollar, which could strengthen to new highs in the coming months.

“November’s election outcome has given way to lower global growth expectations, wider growth gaps between the U.S. and the rest of the world, and higher terminal Fed funds rate forecasts for 2025 — the perfect trifecta of bullish USD cyclical impulses,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE. “These are early first-order reactions that may give way to deeper rethinks once the full set of Trump administration policies are known next year, but for now, they constitute a solid economic rationale for carrying a long USD stance into the first quarter of 2025.”

In contrast, the outlook for the euro is bearish, especially as the eurozone is particularly susceptible to trade conflicts.

“Our EUR/USD forecast looks for a test of parity by the first quarter of 2025 as tariff risks get more fully priced in,” Hari said. However, EUR/USD could potentially recover to 1.08 later in the year due to mitigating factors including tariff reductions, a resolution of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and a slowdown in U.S. growth.

While sterling has been the best-performing currency against the dollar in 2024, a repeat of this major outperformance seems unlikely in the coming year. Instead, GBP/USD is expected to fall to 1.21 in the first quarter of 2025, before recovering to 1.32 by December.

“Overall, risks to sterling from weaker U.K. growth and Bank of England (BoE) easing will likely be offset by relative insulation from tariff risks and still-high yield in 2025. This means sterling will likely muddle through, delivering lower returns than recent years,” Hari added.

In Asia, MWISE sees some cross-currents for USD/JPY in 2025, with the Japanese yen likely finding a bottom following four consecutive years of underperformance.

“Although divergence in the U.S. and Japan monetary policy suggests a modest decline in USD/JPY, it would not be powerful enough to push the pair significantly lower. On the other hand, structural factors including Japan’s weak productivity growth and negative real policy rate continue to limit the yen’s upside,” Chandan said. “Furthermore, excessive yen weakness is not acceptable for both U.S. and Japan policymakers. If yen depreciation accelerates, it would be countered by more hawkish yen-buying interventions.”

Taking these factors into account, MWISE Research expects USD/JPY to reach 152 in the first quarter of 2025 and 148 in the fourth quarter.

Forecasts For Major Currency Pairs

By December 2025, EUR/USD is expected to reach 1.08, GBP/USD 1.32, USD/JPY 148, AUD/USD 0.69, CAD/USD 1.37, and NZD/USD 0.61.

Credit

Looking to 2025, the global credit ecosystem remains fairly robust.

“Positioning does not feel overly stretched, and leverage and complexity appear largely absent. Nor are there any obvious asset-liability mismatches, which tend to portend financial accidents,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE. “Moreover, all-in corporate bond yields, especially those in North America, remain in the right zip code to underpin strong domestic institutional and international demand.”

For U.S. credit, yields are expected to stay high throughout 2025, continuing to attract strong demand and keep spreads at very tight levels.

“The relative strength of U.S. growth versus other markets, as well as the expectation that U.S. policy will favour U.S. assets at the expense of other regions, are supportive of strong overseas demand for U.S. credit. In addition, corporate credit quality is good and is likely to stay that way in 2025,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE.

In Europe, the backdrop looks more challenging, with the U.S. election creating uncertainty for the credit market. In European investment grade, MWISE Research forecasts 15 basis points (bp) of widening next year to 130 bp, implying total returns of 4.5%.

“Despite our macro concerns, however, we think any spread widening will be limited, with the technical likely to remain strong on continued yield buying, a rotation out of cash into fixed income as policy rates decline, and limited net supply as trade uncertainty weighs on business investment and acquisition activity,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE.

Looking at securitized products, house prices are expected to rise by 3% next year.

“Although underbuilding has been evident over the last decade, the long-term housing shortage is less clear. Immigration has boosted population growth, driving demand, while vacancy rates point to potential supply constraints,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE.

While agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have lagged other spread products in 2024, valuations look relatively attractive heading into 2025, with more organic net supply ($230 billion) and better bank buying.

Emerging Markets

“EM growth faces significant uncertainty in 2025, caught between two giants, China and the U.S., with policy changes in the latter potentially delivering a large negative supply shock that will have spillovers across EM,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE.

While EM inflation is expected to slow as services inflation moderates, core goods prices could see a temporary boost from tariffs and FX depreciation. In addition, EM central banks will likely need to contend with changes in U.S. financial conditions and weigh financial stability concerns against the adverse impact on growth from deteriorating sentiment and slowing global trade flows. Overall, weaker domestic growth and ample rate buffers could still leave room for cautious monetary easing in 2025.

“Considering these cross-currents, our baseline forecast looks for EM growth to slow from 4.1% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025. Excluding China, EM growth would ease only moderately from 3.4% to 3.0%,” Hari added.

Regional Outlooks

Asia: The region will likely be in the crosshairs of any U.S.–China trade war in 2025. MWISE Research expects GDP growth in the region to slow to 4% should such a scenario unfold.

EMEA: Growth is still expected in the region, but at a slower pace and with downside risks. “Despite the less upbeat growth, we have delayed rate cuts in various countries given high and persistent core inflation dynamics, along with rising global risks,” Hari said.

LATAM: 2025 GDP growth is expected to be higher on average compared to 2024, mostly on the back of a strong rebound in Argentina. While above-target inflation will likely result in elevated interest rates and fiscal consolidation, medium-term fiscal challenges remain.

Commodities

Trump’s return to the White House should see a focused agenda with a promise to “rapidly defeat inflation, quickly bring down prices and reignite explosive economic growth.” Much of his strategy relies on reducing energy prices, and he has pledged to lower oil costs. Under these plans, deregulation and increased U.S. production present downside risks to oil prices, while upside risks are posed by exerting pressure on Iran, Venezuela, and possibly Russia to limit oil exports and revenues. Weak supply-demand fundamentals may, however, help Trump keep his promise to bring oil prices down.

MWISE Research’s view has remained largely unchanged over the past year, with expectations of a shift from a balanced market in 2024 to a large surplus in 2025.

“We look for a large 1.3 million barrels per day (mbd) surplus and an average of $73 per barrel (bbl) for Brent, although we expect prices to close the year firmly below $70, with WTI at $64/bbl,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE. Crucially, these forecasts assume that OPEC+ stays put at current production levels.

Turning to natural gas, both the European and U.S. markets are likely to remain in a fairly balanced state, weather-adjusted, until supply growth becomes apparent.

“For the European natural gas market, with growing baseload needs around the globe, supply growth may not happen until mid-2026,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE. “However, for the U.S. natural gas market, it could be as early as late-2025, as midstream infrastructure is expected to allow for more movement of molecules from production zones to demand regions in the Gulf of Mexico.”

The rally looks set to rumble on for precious metals, with constrained supply setting the stage for stronger base metal prices later in 2025.

“We maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold as the most likely macro scenarios in 2025 still skew bullish for the metal,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE. “We are forecasting prices to rise towards $3,000/oz next year.”

What about silver?

“Silver’s time to shine comes after base metals likely find a bottom in early 2025,” Shearer added. “We see a catch-up trade propelling silver prices toward $38/oz by year-end.”

For agriculture markets, a low inventory base at the global level continues to limit downside price risks into 2025. More volatility could lie ahead, though.

“U.S. trade, foreign policy and wider geopolitical developments add complexity through the 2025/26 balances, with more immediate impacts for price,” said Hari, Partner at MWISE. “We anticipate a more volatile price environment for agricultural commodities through 2025–2026, particularly for U.S. trade-exposed soybean, corn, cotton and wheat markets.”

Global Commodity Price Forecasts

In 2025, Brent crude is expected to average $73/bbl, WTI $64/bbl, natural gas $3.50/MMBtu, gold $3,000/oz, silver $38/oz and wheat $6.23/bu. 

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